Kendall County and Boerne continue to develop a new hazardous mitigation plan, and a presentation late last month identified the 12 natural hazards the county faces.
A hazard mitigation plan is designed to identify natural disaster risks that are common to an area and identify solutions to reduce loss of life and property during one those natural disasters. Having a hazard mitigation plan allows the county and city to apply for several statewide and national grants when a disaster declaration is issued.
Two representatives from H20 Partners, Laura Haverlah and Rhonda Murphy, identified the natural disasters most likely to impact Kendall County.
First on the list were floods, which Haverlah said had a chance of occurring three times a year based on historical averages, which she said, “makes it a pretty highly likely event.” Haverlah noted earlier in the presentation that historical data varied by the type of hazard.
It was estimated flooding causes about $463,000 in damages across the county each year.
Wildfires took second place on the list of natural disasters likely to impact Kendall County or Boerne, which is mirrored by the number of wildfires recently burning hundreds of acres in the county since significant rain ceased to fall late last November.
Haverlah estimated there is a probability the county could see 32.59 wildfires a year and cause up to $36,633 in damages, including crop and property losses.
As one might expect in Texas, drought and extreme heat took the next two spots consecutively. This especially seems obvious considering the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines extreme heat as two to three days or more where the temperature is above 90 degrees, which easily could leave the county experiencing extreme heat about half the year.
Haverlah said both extreme heat and drought conditions are estimated to have no cost damages to the city or county, but she pointed out the two natural disasters impact vulnerable populations, like children, older residents or low-income residents, disproportionately.
Thunderstorms and wind took the number five spot with an estimated $15,000 cost to the area each year. Tornadoes oddly took the number six spot, considering there was a chance of less than one happening each year. When reviewing historical data back to the 1950s, Haverlah said there was a chance of .28 tornadoes happening a year.
Next was hail. Haverlah said the historical data on hail in the county and city also go back to the 1950s. She said the largest hail recorded in Kendall County measured 4.25 inches, which she said was “massive,” and she “couldn’t even imagine.”
According to the data, hail has a chance of occurring 1.67 times a year and is estimated to cost the county and city $4,348 annually. However, Haverlah said hail was a “weird thing” to measure in terms of average annualized losses because any damage that goes through an insurance company, like dented vehicles or roofs or broken windshields or windows, doesn’t get added to the toral year over year.
“Historically, the only events where damages really get reported in any robust manner is tornado or flood and sometimes wildfire, but even that is usually just acres burned,” Murphy added. “But we recognize that $4,000 is nothing for annualized average losses. Vehicles don’t get reported, and I’m not certain why, but they do recognize and include info on why there is underreporting in damages.”
Murphy said outside of tornados, floods or wildfires, there are usually far more natural disaster events reported than there are damages from the events reported. Further, she said for damages to be added to the cost from a natural disaster, it has to be “vetted,” but she said she has spoken with others in her profession, and nobody can figure out what that vetting process looks like.
So, Murphy said that is why she and Haverlah focus on the vulnerability and probability components of the hazards impacting the county because they know the damages are underreported.
Unsurprisingly – and partially why the county and city are reworking the entire hazard mitigation plan – winter storms popped up to take the number seven slot.
“This is not something we really would’ve thought of until last year,” Haverlah said. “And it really changed the way we think about this hazard. That was significant because both we live in Texas – and not the part that gets them – but also because of the extent of it.”
Haverlah said there was a chance of .9 winter storms occurring in the county each year, noting there had been 23 recorded winter storm events since the 1990s, but not all were disaster declarations. While no money was noted in damages, Haverlah said such storms can disproportionately impact vulnerable populations.
Dam or levee failure was noted next, which Haverlah said was a “unique one to profile.” She said her company looks at the location of a dam or levee, the topography around it, the capacity of the dam and who would most be impacted should it fail. Only one dam in the county was profiled by her agency, and she said it was unlikely to fail and there were no losses associated with it.
Hurricanes and tropical storms were noted as being unlikely for Kendall County or Boerne, which is understandable considering the distance from any oceans. Haverlah said there was a chance the county could be impacted by .08 hurricanes or tropical storms a year.
Lightning and expansive soils took up the final two spots on the list. Haverlah said lighting is a funny event to monitor because people don’t often look out their windows, see lighting and start writing about it. Expansive soil refers to areas where aquifers lay under the soil, causing expansion and contraction during temperature changes.
Haverlah said the best way to mitigate this issue was through building codes.
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