Last fall, an updated demographic study predicted the Boerne Independent School District would double its student population by the 2031-32 academic year.
Last week, during the March BISD board of trustees meeting, Superintendent Tom Price gave a brief report that boosted figures in that direction when he said 415 new students already had been registered for the 2022-23 year – which begins more than four months from now in August.
And, as registration continues, the number continues to increase, and as of last Friday had grown to 489 new students.
Information from the school district stated online enrollment and registration for the next school year opened March 11. During that brief period between that date and the March 28 school board meeting, the 415 number accumulated. In the next four days, through April 1, it grew by the additional 74 new students.
“It’s truly just the beginning,” Price said.
BISD Director of Communications Bryan Benway told The Star that current student enrollment at the end of March was 10,415. Shortly after the beginning of the school year, the district celebrated having 10,000 students for the first time. At that time, Price said traditionally BISD has 300 or more students move into the district annually.
As the enrollment period for students continues, Benway said he obviously believes enrollment will increase, but added he expects the number “to surpass our current enrollment by the time the 2022-23 school year begins on Aug. 10.”
When the updated demographics presentation was given to the trustees in October, Price said the current BISD student enrollment was 10,333. The 20,654-student projection for 10 years from now is almost exactly double that total.
“It is an exciting time to be a part of Boerne ISD and our wonderful community,” Price told The Star at the time. “As we continue to grow and welcome new families, we will strive to maintain the small-town feel of our community. Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch are special places, and we are a reflection of our community.”
The district hired Population and Survey Analysts to conduct the original study as well as to provide last fall’s update. PASA executives Justin Silhavy and Stacey Tepera went through a detailed slide show that highlighted demographic trends, student trends and housing trends funneling into student projections and potential long-range planning needs.
“Your growth rate steadily is increasing,” Silhavy said during the presentation. “And it’s expected to continue.”
The 20,654-student projection used a moderate growth scenario.
PASA’s projections have BISD growing at a 7-plus annual percent rate through 2029 and a 6-plus percent rate the following two years. The majority of the growth is expected in the southern portions of the district – feeding into Champion High School – which is expected to have almost 4,500 students in 10 years unless a third high school is added.
Currently, there are no plans to add a third high school, but the district’s proposed $165.64 million bond set to go before voters in May includes expansions to both high schools and to both North and South middle schools to accommodate some of the growth as well as building an eighth elementary school. Information included in the bond presentation stated the expansions make room for an additional 1,200 middle and high school students while the new elementary will accommodate about 800.
The PASA study determined an eighth elementary school would be needed by about 2025-26, a third high school by about 2027-28 and a fourth middle school by about 2029-30. A ninth elementary school also is in the plan.
Other numbers showed BISD has added 1,715 students from fall 2015 to fall 2020.
Schools
The PASA research also showed how all the expected growth could play out for the district’s schools.
Kendall and Van Raub elementaries, located in the southern part of the district, are expected to add the most students and therefore will be the first to burst at the seams. In October, PASA listed Kendall’s current enrollment at 703, but in five years, with no additional schools being built, it will increase to 1,213. In 2031, there will be 1,685 students. Van Raub currently has 821 students. Those numbers will increase to 1,221 in five years and to 1,378 in 10 years.
If the bond passes in May and the eighth elementary is built, student campus numbers would be adjusted to include that new school.
The presentation stated there should be about a 900-student limit per elementary school.
The other elementary school student populations are expected to be:
• Fair Oaks Ranch: 765 last fall, 996 in 2026, 973 in 2031.
• Fabra: 635 last fall, 910 in 2026, 1,181 in 2031.
• Curington: 593 last fall, 800 in 2026, 827 in 2031.
• Herff: 523 last fall, 844 in 2026, 1,306 in 2031.
• Cibolo Creek: 483 last fall, 701 in 2026, 995 in 2031.
Under the moderate growth scenario, a ninth elementary will be needed as early as 2029.
As far as middle school populations, South will see the most additions as student growth is projected to increase from 931 currently to 1,390 in 2026 and to 2,159 in 2031. At North, the numbers are 821, 1,145 and 1,714, respectively. At Voss, in its second year of operation, there are 751 students now, 936 expected in five years and 1,395 projected for 2031.
Boerne ISD’s two high schools also will swell with additional students.
Champion, serving the south portion of the district, was listed as having 1,950 students in October. In five years, the number will grow to 2,855. In 10 years, the total will be 4,437, meaning the senior graduating class could be more than 1,000 students.
At Boerne High, there were 1,304 students last fall, according to PASA numbers. In 2026, the figure climbs to 1,737. In 2031, it hits 2,604.
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