With drought conditions persisting throughout much of Texas as another spring brings its hopes of better things ahead, there appears to be little reason to expect relief from the dry pattern that has plagued much of the Hill Country since Thanksgiving.
But, there’s always hope as a common saying heard around these parts is if you don’t like the weather, wait a minute and it will change. Locally, most of Kendall County remains in severe drought with the far northern portion experiencing extreme drought.
According to the National Weather Service, severe drought means pasture conditions are very poor; the soil is hard, hindering planting while crop yields decrease; and the wildfire danger is severe.
Extreme drought means the soil has large cracks, soil moisture is very low and dust and sandstorms occur; row and forage crops fail to germinate and decreased yields for irrigated crops and very large yield reduction for dryland crops are reported; and the need for supplemental feed, nutrients, protein and water for livestock increases.
“Based on just the deviation from ‘normal’ precipitation, we are entering into a drought period,” Cow Creek Groundwater Conservation District General Manager Micah Voulgaris told The Star.
Weather data
It was reported that February was the third consecutive month Boerne received less than one inch of precipitation as only 0.78 of an inch was recorded at Boerne Stage Field, according to the NWS. That came on the heels of 0.57 of an inch in January and 0.36 of an inch in December.
The NWS also stated February was the driest in Texas over the past 128 years. It also reported the month was the 30th driest on record in Kendall County during the same timeframe. One-hun dred percent of Kendall County residents are affected by drought, statistics showed.
So far, through Thursday morning, 0.30 of an inch of rain has fallen at Boerne Stage Field in March, with half of that total accumulating on March 21.
Normal March rainfall in Boerne is 2.42 inches, according to the NWS data. The total for the first two months of the year – 1.35 inches – was only 35 percent of the normal amount of 3.85 inches.
Currently, Boerne is in Stage 1 drought conditions, according to information from CCGCD. However, it reported that the average water level is 10.57 feet below the historical average.
The CCGCD also reported on its website that the flow of the Guadalupe River at Comfort is 65.5 cubic feet per second. The historical median flow is 130 cfs, or almost twice as much. At Spring Branch, the current flow is 62.3 cfs compared to the historical median flow of 186.
Not so bleak?
However, despite the bleak numbers, Voulgaris said the news isn’t all bad and things may not be as bad as they seem.
“We try to look at several factors when determining our drought stages,” he said. “Our main indicator is water level in our 43 monitor wells. When comparing the average water levels over time we have to look at what average we are comparing to.”
For example, the 10.57 feet below average from the districts’ aquifer watch table is the “everything average,” Voulgaris said, adding it includes data going back to the 1960s on some of the district’s monitor wells.
“This average is good for showing long-term trends,” he said, but emphasizing “We are currently above our 10-year average by 0.68 feet. This average gets rid of those higher pre-development values that kind of skew the data to something that is really no longer attainable.”
With all that said, Voulgaris said the CCGCD probably will be looking at Stage 2 restrictions in late spring barring any major rain event.
“This is the time of year that the curve starts to flatten out and we see those levels start to drop,” he said. “It usually occurs when we have a solid week of 80-degree weather and folks start irrigating their grass that had been dormant through the winter and early spring.”
Voulgaris also said that over the years, Cow Creek has tried to veer away from “knee-jerk reactions” to a lack of rainfall and really tries to focus on the actual water levels and base decisions on what the actual groundwater levels in the district are.
Boerne experienced above-normal precipitation in 2021 as 41.51 inches was recorded at Boerne Stage Field, or more than 5 inches above the mean.
Drought stages
Stage 1 drought means lawns can be watered before 10 a.m. and after 8 p.m. Hand-held hoses are allowed anytime and pools may be filled with groundwater. Home gardens may be watered anytime with a drip system, hand-held hose or hand-held buckets.
If Stage 2 is implemented, lawns can be watered before 10 a.m. and after 6 p.m. on the designated day of the week, which is determined by the house address.
As far as what can people do to help, Voulgaris said they can limit outdoor lawn irrigation to the bare minimum.
“This is our biggest water use in the district and would make the most significant effect,” he said.
Also, he said to “conserve water the good, old-fashioned ways, i.e. shorter showers, larger loads, turning off the sink when brushing your teeth, fixing leaks and drip ping faucets.”
Texas drought
A United States map shows the vast majority of Texas in a persistent drought stage through the spring, with the tendency for conditions to continue or worsen. Almost all of the western half of the country is in that stage prediction.
“Severe to exceptional drought has persisted in some areas of the West since the summer of 2020 and drought has expanded to the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With nearly 60 percent of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we’ve seen in the U.S. since 2013.”
The same holds true in Texas.
Information from the National Weather Service from last week stated 96.31 percent of Texas is in some form of drought. More than 90 percent is in moderate drought or worse and 70 percent is experiencing severe drought or worse. More than 40 percent is in extreme or exceptional drought.
“The latest drought map … shows continued expansion and intensification of drought across our state,” information from the Texas Water Development Board stated. “Severe or worse drought impacts 70 percent of the state, the largest extent since July 2013.”
In addition, more than half of the United States is predicted to experience above-average temperatures this spring. Most of Texas is in the above or much-above range.
The NWS’s short-term forecast through the middle of next week does not include any chances of rain. Highs are expected to be in the 80s with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
The precipitation forecast for the rest of March places Kendall County and almost all of Texas in the below normal category. The long-range precipitation forecast – April through June – calls for below normal precipitation.
“I would not say that we are overly concerned about the current drought, but we always need to be diligent as drought is something that is guaranteed to occur here in Texas, especially the further you go west,” Voulgaris said. “We do, after all, live on the edge of the desert.”
A burn ban remains in effect for Kendall County.
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